Data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Planning Implementation on Monday showed that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarter ended December 31, 2021, has increased by 5.4 percent. The second revised estimates of GDP data, released by the center showed that in the last two quarters, the economy expanded 20.3 percent and 8.5 percent respectively. For Q1 of FY22, GDP growth data has been revised from 20.1 percent to 20.3 percent, while for Q2, it has been revised from 8.4 percent to 8.5 percent.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) price in Q3 of 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 38.26 lakh crore in Q3 of 2020-21,” the release said. Earlier, the growth was projected 9.2 percent for 2021-22, but due to the second wave of Covid-19, International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut the growth to 9 percent.
The supply chain disruption also affected the output and slowed the pace of growth. For December, the Industrial output grew at a mere 0.4 per cent, much slower than estimated. According to the experts, Omicron’s impact will be visible in the Q4 GDP data.
In the last one month, test positivity of Covid-19 has declined significantly, and Delhi has already lifted Covid-19 restrictions. With the pandemic subsiding, economic indicators are expected to improve. Private consumption, which comprises 60 per cent of the nominal GDP has comparatively revived back to pre-pandemic level. The scope of rising inflation, however, continues to jeopardize sustainable consumption recovery.
“Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 236.44 lakh crore, as against Rs 198.01 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth rate of 19.4 per cent,” the release quoted. In the third quarter of 2021-22, Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in the manufacturing sector remained almost flat at 0.2 per cent, compared to 8.4 per cent growth last year.
In February, while presenting the Union Budget 2022-23, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had projected a GDP growth of 9.2 per cent, as given by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Economic Survey 2022.
However, the rising Russia-Ukraine crisis is said to impact the crude oil prices and supply disruptions, which could further sap India’s economic growth, thereby posing uncertainities to household spending and private investments.